Climate Change Shapefiles IPCC Scenarios and Storylines
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The A1 Scenario
The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid
and successful economic development, low population growth, and the rapid
introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes
are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and
social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in
per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into four groups that
describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy
system.
A1B Scenario
A1B Scenario Run set is represented by the five ensemble members. Climate
models are an imperfect representation of the earth's climate system and
climate modelers employ a technique called ensembling to capture the range
of possible climate states. A climate model run ensemble consists of two or
more climate model runs made with the exact same climate model, using the
exact same boundary forcings, where the only difference between the runs is
the initial conditions.
An individual simulation within a climate model run ensemble is referred to
as an ensemble member. The different initial conditions result in different
simulations for each of the ensemble members due to the nonlinearity of the
climate model system. Essentially, the earth's climate can be considered to
be a special ensemble that consists of only one member. Averaging over a
multi-member ensemble of model climate runs gives a measure of the average
model response to the forcings imposed on the model. For more information
about ensemble members see Help.
Main characteristics of A1B scenario include: low population growth,
very high GDP growth, very high energy use, low-medium land use changes,
medium resource (mainly oil and gas) availability, rapid pace and direction
of technological change favoring balanced development. For more information
on A1B Scenario read IPCC special report on Emissions Scenarios: Summary for
policymakers or Full report.
B1 Scenario
The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with low
population growth, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a
service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and
the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis
is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability,
including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.
Main characteristics of B1 scenario include: low population growth, high GDP growth,
low energy use, high land use changes, low resource (mainly oil and gas)
availability, medium pace and direction of technological change favoring
efficiency and dematerialization. For more information on A2 Scenario read
IPCC special report on Emissions Scenarios: Summary for policymakers or
Full report.
A2 Scenario
A2 Scenario Run set is represented by the five ensemble members. Climate models
are an imperfect representation of the earth's climate system and climate
modelers employ a technique called ensembling to capture the range of possible
climate states. A climate model run ensemble consists of two or more climate
model runs made with the exact same climate model, using the exact same boundary
forcings, where the only difference between the runs is the initial conditions.
An individual simulation within a climate model run ensemble is referred to as
an ensemble member. The different initial conditions result in different
simulations for each of the ensemble members due to the nonlinearity of the
climate model system. Essentially, the earth's climate can be considered to be
a special ensemble that consists of only one member. Averaging over a
multi-member ensemble of model climate runs gives a measure of the average model
response to the forcings imposed on the model. For more information about
ensemble members see Help.
The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very differentiated and
heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of
local identities. Emphasis on economic, social, and cultural interactions between
regions is less than in other storylines. Fertility patterns across regions
converge very slowly, which results in high population growth. Economic
development is uneven, the income gap between now-industrialized and developing
parts of the world does not narrow, and per capita economic growth and
technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.
Main characteristics A2 scenario include: high population growth, medium GDP
growth, high energy use, medium-high land use changes, low resource (mainly oil
and gas) availability, slow pace and direction of technological change favoring
regional economic development. For more information on A2 Scenario read IPCC
special report on Emissions Scenarios: Summary for policymakers or Full report.
A2 Scenario Run set is represented by the five ensemble members. Climate models
are an imperfect representation of the earth's climate system and climate modelers
employ a technique called ensembling to capture the range of possible climate
states. A climate model run ensemble consists of two or more climate model runs
made with the exact same climate model, using the exact same boundary forcings,
where the only difference between the runs is the initial conditions.
An individual simulation within a climate model run ensemble is referred to as an
ensemble member. The different initial conditions result in different simulations
for each of the ensemble members due to the nonlinearity of the climate model
system. Essentially, the earth's climate can be considered to be a special ensemble
that consists of only one member. Averaging over a multi-member ensemble of model
climate runs gives a measure of the average model response to the forcings imposed
on the model. For more information about ensemble members see Help.
20th Century Historical Run
20th Century Historical Run has model input forcings or initial conditions (e.g.,
solar irradiance, ozone, sulfates, greenhouse gases) that are temporally and
spatially varying from the period 1870-2000, representing changes in the
atmospheric concentrations of sulfates, ozone, greenhouse gasses, as well as the
impact of volcanic eruptions, and other quantities. Solar irradiance is varied
according to one interpretation of observations.
20th Century Historical Run set is represented by the five ensemble members.
Climate models are an imperfect representation of the earth's climate system and
climate modelers employ a technique called ensembling to capture the range of
possible climate states. A climate model run ensemble consists of two or more
climate model runs made with the exact same climate model, using the exact same
boundary forcings, where the only difference between the runs is the initial
conditions.
An individual simulation within a climate model run ensemble is referred to as
an ensemble member. The different initial conditions result in different
simulations for each of the ensemble members due to the nonlinearity of the
climate model system. Essentially, the earth's climate can be considered to be a
special ensemble that consists of only one member. Averaging over a multi-member
ensemble of model climate runs gives a measure of the average model response to
the forcings imposed on the model.
Summary from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report
Temperature and sea level rise for each SRES scenario family
There are six families of SRES Scenarios, and AR4 provides projected temperature
and sea level rises (excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow[5])for
each scenario family.
- Scenario B1
- Best estimate temperature rise of 1.8 ºC with a likely range of 1.1
to 2.9 ºC (3.2 ºF with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.2 ºF)
- Sea level rise likely range [18 to 38 cm] (7 to 15 inches)
- Scenario A1T
- Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 ºC with a likely range of 1.4
to 3.8 ºC (4.3 ºF with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 ºF)
- Sea level rise likely range [20 to 45 cm] (8 to 18 inches)
- Scenario B2
- Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 ºC with a likely range of 1.4
to 3.8 ºC (4.3 ºF with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 ºF)
- Sea level rise likely range [20 to 43 cm] (8 to 17 inches)
- Scenario A1B
- Best estimate temperature rise of 2.8 ºC with a likely range of 1.7
to 4.4 ºC (5.0 ºF with a likely range of 3.1 to 7.9 ºF)
- Sea level rise likely range [21 to 48 cm] (8 to 19 inches)
- Scenario A2
- Best estimate temperature rise of 3.4 ºC with a likely range of 2.0
to 5.4 ºC (6.1 ºF with a likely range of 3.6 to 9.7 ºF)
- Sea level rise likely range [23 to 51 cm] (9 to 20 inches)
- Scenario A1FI
- Best estimate temperature rise of 4.0 ºC with a likely range of 2.4
to 6.4 ºC (7.2 ºF with a likely range of 4.3 to 11.5 ºF)
- Sea level rise likely range [26 to 59 cm] (10 to 23 inches)
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